Correlation Between Oil Prices And The Currency Market
Crude oil rices skyrocketed from around $60-70 per barrel to amost $150 per barrel in a matter of just few monts in the summer of 2008. No one is sure whether the increase in the prices was due to speculation by the hedge funds. When the stock markets crashed in the middle of 2008, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in crude oil futures to cover the redemption pressure on them. Prices collapsed and are down now due to low consumer demand because of the global recession. But it is being predicted by the experts that with a recovery in the global economy, the oil demand will rise and the prices will go up again. Oil demand in China and India plays a major role now.
Download this 1 Minute Forex Trading System FREE. This forex trading system is so simple that even a person who has never traded oil before can make money with it. Get these Swing Trading Informants plus Forex Profit Accelerator End of Day Trading Kit (100 page PDF plus videos) FREE. Watch this weird 30 minutes Forex Nitty Gritty video just now!
As oil prices go up, consumers have to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit companies making these products make. Declining profits means declining stock prices.
Historically, rising prices of crude oil have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded. By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated.
Take Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. The effect would be depreciation in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. And if you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is harmed by the rising prices of oil, the demand for USD will rise.
When oil prices are going to rise again, watch for CAD/JPY currency pair. CAD is positively correlated and JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to rise in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of rising oil prices.
Filed Under: Info
